Center for Leadership in Global Diplomacy

Environmental Groups Endorse UNCLOS

National Security Advisor Endorses UNCLOS

Presentation at the Sohn Symposium, 24 October 2006

On Octover 24, 2006, the GWU Law School hosted a day-long symposium in honor of the life and contributions of Louis Sohn. Three panels were held as part of the event. As presentations are made available, they will be posted here.

Included here is a PDF file of the presentation of Cdr. James Kraska, USN.

Kraska Presentation: The Law of the Sea Convention: A National Security Success

Remarks and presentations will be included in a future issue of the GWU Law School's International Law Review.

Leon Panetta Addresses UNCLOS and the US Arctic Boundary

On NPR on November 24th, Leon Panetta, co-chair of the Joint Ocean Commissions Initiative and former chair of the Pew Oceans Commission, addressed the failure of the US to claim the extended continental shelf north of Alaska that would be permitted under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. He argues that this is one of the reasons that the US should ratify the LOS Convention.

You can find the two page transcript of the October 24th, 2006 appearance by Leon Panetta, chair of the Pew Ocean Commission, with Lisa Napoli of NPR's Marketplace on the web site of the Joint Ocean Commissions Initiative at:

Leon Panetta's Nov. 24 Statement on NPR's Marketplace

Mr. Panetta was incorrect in his attribution of the negotiation of UNCLOS to the Reagan Administration, but other than that it is a supportive statement for US ratification. While largely conducted under Republican negotiators, the Reagan Administration only addressed the negotiations for a year and a half. The negotiations were planned an initiated under the Nixon Administration, substantial progress made under the Ford Administration, the battle over the seabeds took place under the Carter Administration, the effort to change the draft convention was under the Reagan Administration and the revisions to meet US needs were begun under the first Bush Administration and completed under the Clinton Administration

Seabed Mining the Second Time Around

Sea Technology published a summary article in its August 2006 issue based on my paper for Oceans 2005 on the economic outlook for development of mineral resources of the deep seabed. Since the shortened form left out both content and references from the original paper, I want to make the original paper available to people who come to this site from the Sea Technology Magazine site. In both the paper and the article, I address the trends in metal production and consumption that I believe will cause a rise in metal demand and prices, particularly for nickel and cobalt, that will make development of mineral deposits both on land and from the deep seabed much more attractive. To a large degree, these changes are a result of the same relationship between level of economic development and metal demand that ended the first round of interest in seabed minerals: the intensity of use (consumption per unit of GDP) that increases as a poor country develops to an industrialized economy, then levels off and begins to decline as they move on to larger service and information economies. As the industrialized economies met and surpassed this crest of intensity of use in the 1970s, metal demand slowed, prices declined and the outlook for deep seabed mining darkened. Now, as China moves heavily into its industrialization, the trend is reversing, demand for nickel is increasing, prices are rising and the trend appears to be sustainable for years to come. Other factors, including the introduction of hybrid and electric automobiles and the effects on the world metal market when the Russian economy begins to develop again, all lead to the conclusion that prices for nickel (and for cobalt) will continue to rise through the decade and beyond.

The paper (but not the article) also addresses the outlook for the development of marine methane hydrates,noting that commercial development is far off, and that it is most likely to begin in deposits within the EEZs of countries that are dependent upon foreign sources for their natural gas supplies: Japan and India.

The paper is short (8 pages), but graphics make it almost a megabyte in size. You may access it here.

Louis Sohn - Instructor, Colleague, Mentor, Friend

In 1973 I was one of a small group of MIT engineers who took a course in ocean law given jointly by MIT and Harvard Law School. I was part of a team studying the technology, economics and international law of deep seabed mining. Louis Sohn was the faculty advisor for our team, beginning a relationship that lasted through school, government service and research in international negotiation and diplomacy. Louis gave me my introduction to the debates over the legal regime for seabed minerals with materials prepared for the opening session of UNCLOS and with his personal reports of later sessions. He was an inspiration to me not only for his contributions to the field of international law, but also for the energy and unflagging spirit that he brought to all that he did. He inspired in me a belief that the field of international law was essential to achieving a better world and that as an engineer, economist and policy analyst I could participate in the development of international ocean law. He also showed me that working to develop and strengthen international law was a reward in itself, giving a sense of contribution to both the national interest and the greater good of mankind.

Louis Sohn died on June 7th, passing away from Alzheimer's disease at the age of 92. I mourn his passing but celebrate his life and contributions.

And if US ratification of UNCLOS were not a strong enough incentive on its own, I ask for us all to redouble our efforts so that the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea can be made the law of the land as an honor to Louis Sohn and his contributions to the United States and the world.

Caitlyn Antrim

I include a link to the Washington Post obituary below.

Sovereignty and Regimes

The topic of national sovereignty comes up again and again from critics of the LOS Convention. Yet few people give much thought to the meaning of sovereignty beyond a general sense that a nation state is supposed to be able to conduct its affairs without interference, particularly within its own territory, but also to some extent beyond its borders. "Sovereignty" has become a rallying cry of opposition without any effort to specify exactly what it means or how it might be threatened.

For people who want to move beyond the rhetoric, I highly recommend the book "Sovereignty: Organized Hypocrisy" by Stephen Krasner. Krasner, a professor at Stanford University who currently serves as Director of Policy Planning at the State Department, provides an in depth look at different meanings of the term sovereignty, puts them in the broad context of international relations theory, then applies them to specific issues, including minority and human rights and international lending.

The key to Krasner's analysis is the identification of four types of sovereignty: international legal sovereignty (the recognition of states and the rights that accompany statehood), Westphalian sovereignty (the right of states to pursue their own interests within their own territory without interference), interdependence sovereignty (the right to control material, financial and other flows across their borders) and domestic sovereignty (the right to organize domestic governance structures without outside interference). Krasner points out many occasions where one or more of these four types have been violated over the past several centuries.

This is not an easy book to read - particularly at the beginning when the concepts are introduced in the context of IR theory. But the reward is great as one sees that sovereignty is violated quite often even as it remains a pillar of the Westphalian system of nation-states (hence the subtitle 'Organized Hypocrisy'). Those interested in Law of the Sea will be interested in Krasner's description of the development of the exception of slave trade from the traditional high seas freedoms, an exception that was finally codified in the 1958 Geneva Convention on the High Seas and retained in UNCLOS. The early development of this provision, as described by Krasner, is reminiscent of the current state of the Proliferation Security Initiative.

Krasner describes categories of international agreements and actions and describes whether and how they violate aspects of sovereignty, with examples from the past three centuries of bilateral actions and multilateral agreements.

I have added a link to Amazon from the CLGD home page to facilitate purchase of this book for those who are intersted.

Politics of the Sea: Journal Contents

The Journal of International Affairs fall/winter issue on "The Politics of the Sea: Regulating Stateless Space" has been released. I think many of you will find it very interesting as it covers issues from US ratification of UNCLOS to practical issues in the application of law of the sea from coastal development to the deep seabed. I was particularly interested in reading the articles related to maritime security in the United States and in foreign straits. A copy of the order form for this issues and for back issues of the Journal is available at . Please forward this e-mail to others who might have an interest in the issue.

The position papers, interview and articles are:

Position Papers:

John Norton Moore and William L. Schachte, "The Senate Should Give Immediate Advice and Consent to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea"
Doug Bandow, "Don't Resurrect the Law of the Sea Treaty"

Interview with: Gudmundur Eiriksson

Articles:

Caitlyn L. Antrim, "Mineral Resources of Stateless Space: Lessons from the Deep Seabed"
Hurst Groves, "Offshore Oil and Gas Resources: Economics, Politics and the rule of Law in the Nigeria-Sao Tome e Principe Joint Development Zone"
J. Ashley Roach, "Enhancing Maritime Security in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore"
Zou Keyuan, "Seeking Effectiveness for the Crackdown of Piracy at Sea"
John Donaldson and Alison Williams, "Understanding Maritime Jurisdictional Disputes: The East China Sea and Beyond"
John R. Harrald, "Sea Trade and Security: An Assessment of the Post-9/11 Reaction"
Alfred M. Duda, "Contributing to Ocean Security: GEF Support for Integrated Management of Land-Sea Interactions"
Jon Barnett, "Titanic States? Impacts and Responses to Climate Change in the Pacific Islands"
Meryl J. Williams, "Are High Seas and International Marine Fisheries the Ultimate Sustainable Management Challenge?"

Politics of the Sea - Regulating Stateless Space

The Winter issue of the Journal of International Affairs (Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs), which addresses the topic of Politics of the Seas: Regulating Stateless Space, will be released on Monday, December 12th. The issue includes position papers favoring and opposing US ratification of the Law of the Sea Convention by William Schachte and John Norton Moore favoring ratification and Doug Bandow in opposition. Additional papers address the development of the regime for deep seabed minerals, fisheries, navigation and other issues of ocean use that are addressed in the LOS Convention.

Copies of the new Winter issue are available from the offices of the Journal for $15 for individuals ($33 for institutions) (international prices are somewhat higher). The order sheet is available as a PDF file here.

Economic Outlook for Deep Seabed Minerals - Paper available

I recently prepared a paper on the long term economic outlook for exploitation of deep seabed minerals for presentation at the MTS/IEEE Oceans 2005 Conference. In it, I address the trends in metal production and consumption that I believe will cause a rise in metal demand and prices, particularly for nickel and cobalt, that will make development of mineral deposits both on land and from the deep seabed much more attractive. To a large degree, these changes are a result of the same relationship between level of economic development and metal demand that ended the first round of interest in seabed minerals: the intensity of use (consumption per unit of GDP) that increases as a poor country develops to an industrialized economy, then levels off and begins to decline as they move on to larger service and information economies. As the industrialized economies met and surpassed this crest of intensity of use in the 1970s, metal demand slowed, prices declined and the outlook for deep seabed mining darkened. Now, as China moves heavily into its industrialization, the trend is reversing, demand for nickel is increasing, prices are rising and the trend appears to be sustainable for years to come. Other factors, including the introduction of hybrid and electric automobiles and the effects on the world metal market when the Russian economy begins to develop again, all lead to the conclusion that prices for nickel (and for cobalt) will continue to rise through the decade and beyond.

The paper also addresses the outlook for the development of marine methane hydrates,noting that commercial development is far off, and that it is most likely to begin in deposits within the EEZs of countries that are dependent upon foreign sources for their natural gas supplies: Japan and India.

The paper is short (8 pages), but graphics make it almost a megabyte in size. You may access it here.